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新冠肺炎疫情的传播,对我国旅游业造成了巨大的损失。为测算新冠肺炎给我国旅游业带来的影响,文章采用ARIMA双变量模型,从乐观、中性、悲观三种情形对疫情影响下的我国旅游业进行了科学预测,探讨新冠肺炎这一重大社会事件所引起的不同时刻的旅游人次的变化及旅游收入的减少,以期为旅游同行学者们提供可靠数据以资参考借鉴,并就旅游管理部门、旅游企业、旅游者三大旅游主体提出应对新冠肺炎疫情的措施,为我国旅游业尽快从疫情中恢复过来建言献策。
Abstract：The spread of the COVID-19 epidemic has caused huge losses to China's tourism industry. In order to measure the negative effects,this paper adopts the ARIMA bivariate model and scientifically predicts China's tourism industry under the impact of the epidemic from three circumstances: optimistic,neutral,and pessimistic. It also views the COVID-19 as a social event and looks into the decrease in the number of tourists at different times and the reduction in tourism income,thus providing peer scholars in tourism with reliable data for reference. From the perspectives of the four major tourism entities,namely,tourism management departments,tourism industry associations,tourism enterprises,and tourists,the paper puts forward measures to deal with the COVID-19 in the hope that China's tourism industry will recover from the COVID-19 as soon as possible.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:F592
引用信息:
[1]贺小荣,彭坤杰.新冠肺炎疫情对我国旅游业的影响:预测与对策[J].四川旅游学院学报,2020,No.149(04):65-71.